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The Story the Data Won't Tell You

Disclaimer: I am not an expert in COVID19, or medicine, or pathology. I am expressing personal opinions which do not reflect the views of any firm I am associated with. Please do not take anything I say as medical, financial, or personal advice.

COVID19 is upon us and we are seeing a near exponential growth in the number of cases right now. Most of us are experiencing this pandemic through the data. But there’s an issue with this data. It doesn’t tell the whole story.

The Map is Not the Territory

This is a simple mental model. The map is a picorial 2 dimensional representation of the territory. But how many properties of the territory can it actually capture? Can it capture how slippery that one spot is? Can it tell you which tree is at what spot and how its leaves feels to the touch? Visiting the territory is very different from just analysing it through a map.

When we talk about the COVID19 data, it’s a map for the territory of what’s actually happening due to COVID. The Data tells us the number of detected / tested cases, the number of recoveries, the number of deaths, the number of days in quarantine, the probability that people of a certain age survive, etc. But is that the whole story?

The Data here does not tell us:

1. How many people are undiscovered / untested?
2. What do the people who contract it actually go through, mentally and physically?
3. How many would have been lost if they had not been discovered / treated?
4. How do people feel when they lose their loved ones in quarantine? Away from home, distant?

This disease is in the real world and affects real people. It’s easy to think 10,000 people lost out of 7 billion isn’t that much statistically. It’s harder to remember these are 10,000 people who died horrible untimely death and left behind a hole in the hearts of their loved ones.

Don’t reduce people to numbers and data. The fight is not for least deaths and least suffering. It’s for no death or suffering.

Incomplete Data

I would also like to re-iterate that even the data we have is incomplete. It doesn’t tell the whole story. It’s like trying to travel across India with only the boundaries on the map.

In the end, I would rather err on the side of caution, than go life long letting my rationality carry the burden of lost lives.

Stay safe, and Wash your hands.

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