< back to main page more posts >

Danger is Real, Fear is Not (And Other Mental Models for Troubled Times)

In this day and age, mass paranoia and hysteria are common. Even contradictory ideas can simultaneously have mass following, just because of the sheer reach digital platforms provide.

“COVID-19 will kill us all”, “World War III is coming”, “Robots are taking away jobs”, “Funding Winter is coming”, etc are common to hear. Arguments at the border of echo chambers are even more common.

I like to keep two mental models around at such times:

Danger Is Real, Fear is Not

A great line I first heard in a mediocre film at best - “After Earth.” Yes, Danger is real. COVID is a deadly disease, War is possible when tensions are high, Automation is a real threat to how human labour is utilized, and capital flow is getting restricted.

What is not real, is the panic they evoke. Being reactionary helped us years ago, when we were living in Simple world. We heard a roar, we knew a lion was coming. Signals were clear, direct and concise, and reactions were good, because your response was obvious. There was no smarter way of responding than running away or hiding.

That’s not how the world is today. Our embedded reactions and impulses aren’t made for today’s world. Signals are complex, and responses can have varying returns. For most of us, there are many options as to how to respond.

It is important to realize that fear is a reactionary emotion, not the ground truth. When in Danger, recognize it, but Don’t Panic. Be calm, be level headed, and find a better solution.

Recognize the Danger, Ignore the Fear.

Hanlon’s Razor

When we’re put in dangerous consequences due to someone else’s actions, we tend to attribute the blame to them. The assumption is that people act out of malaise, that the world is out to get you.

It probably isn’t so. We tend to make up twisted stories to rationalize why someone acted out of malaise - but the truth is they probably just didn’t understand the consequences.

Stupidity is more prevalent than Malaise.

So if someone puts you in Danger, or puts you through trouble, better to think they’re idiots than to think they’re evil. If you assume malaise, you’re working to pull them down too. If you recognize ignorance / idiocy, you can then help them improve their blind spots. That is Hanlon’s Razor

Like what you're reading?